Month: September 2022

How history repeats itself – republished from the IMSL library of 2 November 2012: Earlier today the Bank of England published three reviews into its recent performance. They contain some interesting insight into how and why analysis sometimes goes awry. Here are some highlights, along with commentary. It’s a riveting read. Honest it is. “Policy… Read More from The Bank of England and the Analysis Process

To be honest, I have never used What If? analysis. It’s in the books, but like so many other lesser known analytical tools, it seldom sees the light of day. The technique requires the analyst to assume a less likely hypothesis has occurred and to work backwards from that point to imagine how it could… Read More from What if? Analysis – The Route to Proactive Intelligence

Driving back from a meeting today, I was listening to the radio and the fascinating subject under discussion was ravens, including one actually talking. No kidding. But there was also a link to the world of intelligence. One aspect of the story was intriguing in particular and that is the role of two ravens in… Read More from Odin’s Ravens and Intelligence

I read an excellent historic article in “Nature” about the way in which scientists fall foul of cognitive biases in the analysis of their scientific data. This matter has an exact read-across into intelligence analysis where the same cognitive biases of course apply. The article provided some key techniques for countering these cognitive biases, which… Read More from Avoiding Cognitive Biases in Intelligence Analysis